Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261018 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  30.2  28.5  29.2  27.5  28.3  30.9  39.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  24.0  25.0  24.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.3  74.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0   0.0  12.0 -29.0 -15.0   0.0 -27.0 -16.0  U  U  U VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  44.0  41.0  41.0  43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.9%        5.7%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       11.9%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%        9.1%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%        9.1%        7.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%        7.2%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%        3.9%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 EP212026 261018 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  30.2  28.5  29.2  27.5  28.3  30.9  39.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  44.0  41.0  41.0  43.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.7%