Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  30.3  28.4  26.8  27.7  28.2  34.3  42.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  23.0  24.0  26.0  27.0  23.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  79.3  65.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  11.0 -19.0   5.0   4.0 -47.0 -29.0 -30.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  48.0  46.0  43.0  42.0  45.0  44.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        2.0%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        5.7%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        3.6%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        3.4%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        3.0%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        1.3%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 EP212026 261018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  30.3  28.4  26.8  27.7  28.2  34.3  42.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  48.0  46.0  43.0  42.0  45.0  44.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%