Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261019 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  26.2  29.1  28.3  29.3  31.3  37.1  45.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  24.0  25.0  28.0  26.0  20.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  84.6  89.3  75.7  75.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -30.0  -9.0  -5.0  10.0 -53.0 -40.0 -41.0  U VU  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  46.0  43.0  41.0  42.0  45.0  45.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 EP212026 261019 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  26.2  29.1  28.3  29.3  31.3  37.1  45.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  46.0  43.0  41.0  42.0  45.0  45.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%