Rapid Intensification Guidance EP212026 261019 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 107.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 55.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 29.8 29.2 28.3 28.8 33.9 38.8 38.8 N N N N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 24.0 27.0 28.0 31.0 30.0 23.0 23.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6 93.6 95.7 95.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -33.0 -14.0 -10.0 0.0 -3.0 -33.0 -53.0 -53.0 VU U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 41.0 41.0 40.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 EP212026 261019 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 107.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 55.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 29.8 29.2 28.3 28.8 33.9 38.8 38.8 N N N N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 41.0 41.0 40.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.5% 0.7%