Rapid Intensification Guidance EP212026 261019 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.60 108.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.8 28.3 29.2 28.0 27.8 32.2 44.6 44.6 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 28.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 32.0 26.0 26.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 109.6 109.6 100.7 98.6 88.5 88.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 -22.0 11.0 -9.0 -25.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 U VU U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 43.0 44.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.38 EP212026 261019 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.60 108.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.8 28.3 29.2 28.0 27.8 32.2 44.6 44.6 N N N N N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 43.0 44.0 44.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4%