Rapid Intensification Guidance EP212026 261019 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.40 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.2 26.3 26.3 27.7 30.5 36.7 49.6 49.6 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 25.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 119.6 108.6 110.7 110.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 -2.0 -9.0 -2.0 -22.0 -29.0 -19.0 -19.0 U U U U VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 43.0 43.0 46.0 44.0 46.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.52 EP212026 261019 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.2 26.3 26.3 27.7 30.5 36.7 49.6 49.6 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 43.0 43.0 46.0 44.0 46.0 46.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%