Rapid Intensification Guidance EP212026 261020 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.60 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 26.8 26.6 27.5 30.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 N N N N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 27.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 129.6 129.6 129.6 129.6 F F F N F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 -3.0 -6.0 -15.0 -30.0 -49.0 -49.0 -49.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.50 EP212026 261020 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 26.8 26.6 27.5 30.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 N N N N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%