Rapid Intensification Guidance EP222026 261021 12UTC Storm Located at : 9.50 99.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.3 10.0 7.4 7.8 11.6 17.5 26.2 27.9 F F VF VF F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 16.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 12.0 17.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.7 122.9 122.9 122.9 129.6 134.3 134.3 135.0 N N N N F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 97.0 112.0 92.0 93.0 154.0 193.0 290.0 176.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 82.0 83.0 82.0 81.0 78.0 75.0 74.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 5.4% 3.6% 25kt / 24h 18.3% 46.9% 32.6% 30kt / 24h 7.9% 31.1% 19.5% 35kt / 24h 2.9% 31.1% 17.0% 40kt / 24h 2.4% 29.0% 15.7% 45kt / 36h 22.0% 70.7% 46.3% 55kt / 36h 13.5% 55.9% 34.7% 55kt / 48h 42.4% 24.3% 33.4% 70kt / 48h 24.3% 53.2% 38.8% 65kt / 72h 51.5% 65.4% 58.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.86 EP222026 261021 12UTC Storm Located at : 9.50 99.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.3 10.0 7.4 7.8 11.6 17.5 26.2 27.9 U U VU VU U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 82.0 83.0 82.0 81.0 78.0 75.0 74.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%