Rapid Intensification Guidance EP222026 261021 18UTC Storm Located at : 9.40 99.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.3 9.8 7.6 11.2 18.3 22.7 25.6 29.1 F F VF F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 10.0 12.0 19.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 117.9 117.9 117.9 124.6 122.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 N N N N N F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 124.0 109.0 98.0 83.0 155.0 246.0 188.0 162.0 F F F N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 83.0 83.0 82.0 80.0 79.0 75.0 73.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.1% 8.6% 6.8% 25kt / 24h 27.8% 55.2% 41.5% 30kt / 24h 15.0% 41.2% 28.1% 35kt / 24h 10.1% 41.2% 25.6% 40kt / 24h 10.1% 41.2% 25.6% 45kt / 36h 27.6% 70.3% 48.9% 55kt / 36h 16.9% 54.7% 35.8% 55kt / 48h 39.4% 21.9% 30.6% 70kt / 48h 21.9% 45.6% 33.7% 65kt / 72h 36.7% 52.7% 44.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.94 EP222026 261021 18UTC Storm Located at : 9.40 99.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.3 9.8 7.6 11.2 18.3 22.7 25.6 29.1 U U VU U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 83.0 83.0 82.0 80.0 79.0 75.0 73.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%