Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP222026 261022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.2  10.4  14.8  19.0  25.9  25.0  28.9  32.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  16.0  22.0  25.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 117.3 117.3 117.3 124.3 124.3 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  55.0 122.0 132.0 197.0 205.0 160.0 127.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  79.0  81.0  78.0  75.0  74.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        9.5%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h       22.0%       49.2%       35.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       37.1%       23.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.3%       37.1%       22.7%
 40kt / 24h        8.3%       34.9%       21.6%
 45kt / 36h       18.7%       53.4%       36.1%
 55kt / 36h        7.9%       32.7%       20.3%
 55kt / 48h       22.7%       32.2%       27.4%
 70kt / 48h        9.0%       23.8%       16.4%
 65kt / 72h       26.0%       31.9%       29.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP222026 261022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.2  10.4  14.8  19.0  25.9  25.0  28.9  32.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  79.0  81.0  78.0  75.0  74.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%