Rapid Intensification Guidance EP222026 261023 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.30 101.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 77.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 18.5 22.1 27.1 31.1 39.2 33.2 25.5 F N N N U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 16.0 20.0 29.0 44.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 97.3 97.3 104.3 104.3 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 139.0 163.0 205.0 220.0 156.0 161.0 73.0 115.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 81.0 79.0 78.0 75.0 74.0 69.0 68.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 41.2% 32.2% 36.7% 25kt / 24h 68.5% 77.2% 72.9% 30kt / 24h 53.8% 77.2% 65.5% 35kt / 24h 53.8% 77.2% 65.5% 40kt / 24h 53.8% 77.2% 65.5% 45kt / 36h 44.4% 60.9% 52.6% 55kt / 36h 21.0% 38.1% 29.5% 55kt / 48h 20.2% 32.6% 26.4% 70kt / 48h 6.6% 16.9% 11.7% 65kt / 72h 11.2% 14.9% 13.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.24 EP222026 261023 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.30 101.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 18.5 22.1 27.1 31.1 39.2 33.2 25.5 U N N N N F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 81.0 79.0 78.0 75.0 74.0 69.0 68.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%