Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP912026 260605 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    104.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  24.3  20.1  23.4  23.7  29.4  25.8  44.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  26.0  28.0  33.0  40.0  42.0  39.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  79.0  92.0 109.0 145.0 113.0 164.0 193.0  N  N  F  F VF  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  64.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%       10.7%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.5%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.5%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       17.9%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        4.8%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h       19.1%       10.0%       14.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.7%        6.4%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h       47.9%       24.6%       36.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 EP912026 260605 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    104.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  24.3  20.1  23.4  23.7  29.4  25.8  44.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  64.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%