Rapid Intensification Guidance EP912026 260606 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 104.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 20.4 20.2 19.6 26.5 32.7 43.2 37.1 N N N N N U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 27.0 30.0 34.0 41.0 44.0 38.0 36.0 U U U U N N U U Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 117.0 124.0 141.0 168.0 89.0 117.0 133.0 100.0 F F VF VF F F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 67.0 65.0 56.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 N F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 5.8% 21.5% 13.7% 30kt / 24h 1.4% 7.9% 4.6% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 7.2% 3.8% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 7.0% 3.7% 45kt / 36h 5.9% 30.2% 18.0% 55kt / 36h 2.0% 11.7% 6.9% 55kt / 48h 21.5% 16.2% 18.9% 70kt / 48h 7.9% 11.6% 9.7% 65kt / 72h 30.9% 21.5% 26.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.04 EP912026 260606 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 104.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 20.4 20.2 19.6 26.5 32.7 43.2 37.1 N N N N N F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 67.0 65.0 56.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 N U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%