Rapid Intensification Guidance EP912026 260606 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 104.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 17.7 17.7 24.4 33.0 39.9 44.5 35.8 F F F N U U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 28.0 31.0 37.0 43.0 33.0 35.0 24.0 U U U U N U U U Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 134.0 153.0 138.0 140.0 98.0 119.0 147.0 56.0 VF VF VF VF F F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 73.0 71.0 72.0 68.0 69.0 64.0 55.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -9.0 0.0 F F N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 4.7% 16.7% 10.7% 30kt / 24h 1.3% 5.3% 3.3% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 5.2% 2.7% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 5.2% 2.7% 45kt / 36h 4.6% 18.1% 11.3% 55kt / 36h 1.5% 5.6% 3.6% 55kt / 48h 16.5% 8.2% 12.3% 70kt / 48h 5.3% 5.1% 5.2% 65kt / 72h 24.4% 13.3% 18.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.08 EP912026 260606 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 104.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 17.7 17.7 24.4 33.0 39.9 44.5 35.8 N N N N F F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 73.0 71.0 72.0 68.0 69.0 64.0 55.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -9.0 0.0 U U N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%