Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP912026 260607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  28.8  32.8  31.1  37.4  37.0  35.9  35.9  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  34.0  33.0  25.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0  97.0 141.0 132.0 103.0 109.0   0.0   0.0 VF  F VF  F  F  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  76.0  73.0  69.0  56.0  49.0  49.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.1%       23.8%       16.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        8.9%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        8.7%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        8.0%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       24.1%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        8.2%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%        8.4%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        5.7%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%       11.1%        8.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 EP912026 260607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  28.8  32.8  31.1  37.4  37.0  35.9  35.9  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  76.0  73.0  69.0  56.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%