Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP922026 260607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  33.7  34.3  32.0  42.3  49.4  36.4  31.9  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   9.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   9.0  18.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  87.0 124.0 122.0 176.0 114.0  69.0 110.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.3%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 EP922026 260607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  33.7  34.3  32.0  42.3  49.4  36.4  31.9  F  F  F  N VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%