Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP922026 260607 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     88.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  33.5  39.2  41.8  44.6  44.5  40.4  30.4  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0   9.0  11.0  11.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  67.0  83.0 124.0 149.0  75.0  93.0  64.0  F  N  N  F VF  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  83.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   7.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 EP922026 260607 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     88.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  33.5  39.2  41.8  44.6  44.5  40.4  30.4  N  F  F VF VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  83.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   7.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%