Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP922026 260607 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50     88.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  37.4  40.4  41.0  44.6  38.7  28.2  24.3  U  U  U VU VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   8.0  10.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  74.0 161.0 161.0 149.0  81.0 103.0 109.0  N  N VF VF VF  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  82.0  82.0  85.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 EP922026 260607 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50     88.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  37.4  40.4  41.0  44.6  38.7  28.2  24.3  F  F  F VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  82.0  82.0  85.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%