Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP962026 260713 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    101.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  16.0  16.3  15.2  14.8  15.3  14.1  21.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  23.0  27.0  23.0  17.0  19.0  32.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 118.6 106.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  73.0  81.0  68.0  93.0 100.0 103.0 102.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  73.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -9.0  -7.0  -9.0  -7.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.8%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       34.6%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       18.7%       12.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%       18.7%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       18.7%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.7%       47.3%       29.5%
 55kt / 36h        6.0%       26.7%       16.4%
 55kt / 48h       16.3%       31.8%       24.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%       25.8%       16.1%
 65kt / 72h       17.0%       42.4%       29.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 EP962026 260713 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    101.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  16.0  16.3  15.2  14.8  15.3  14.1  21.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  73.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -9.0  -7.0  -9.0  -7.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%