Rapid Intensification Guidance EP962026 260713 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.50 102.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 20.7 19.2 16.6 20.3 14.4 18.0 20.8 N N N F N F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 31.0 32.0 37.0 30.0 30.0 18.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 122.9 118.6 106.6 101.2 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 82.0 75.0 76.0 76.0 78.0 69.0 80.0 127.0 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 77.0 75.0 73.0 72.0 69.0 65.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -10.0 -11.0 -10.0 -13.0 -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 N F F F VF F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 3.5% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 11.7% 34.2% 22.9% 30kt / 24h 5.3% 17.3% 11.3% 35kt / 24h 2.5% 17.3% 9.9% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 17.3% 9.2% 45kt / 36h 10.4% 41.6% 26.0% 55kt / 36h 5.1% 21.2% 13.2% 55kt / 48h 20.8% 21.8% 21.3% 70kt / 48h 8.6% 20.4% 14.5% 65kt / 72h 16.5% 32.4% 24.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.74 EP962026 260713 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.50 102.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 20.7 19.2 16.6 20.3 14.4 18.0 20.8 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 77.0 75.0 73.0 72.0 69.0 65.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -10.0 -11.0 -10.0 -13.0 -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 N U U U VU U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%