Rapid Intensification Guidance EP962026 260714 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 103.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 34.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 20.2 18.0 21.4 20.6 16.0 19.5 28.7 N N F N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 35.0 34.0 42.0 36.0 21.0 21.0 30.0 U U U N U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 116.5 108.5 104.8 94.3 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 72.0 85.0 88.0 103.0 76.0 63.0 115.0 103.0 N F F F N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 74.0 72.0 72.0 70.0 66.0 64.0 F F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -12.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.6% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 6.1% 20.3% 13.2% 30kt / 24h 2.3% 8.5% 5.4% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 7.8% 4.2% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 7.8% 4.2% 45kt / 36h 4.8% 21.0% 12.9% 55kt / 36h 2.0% 7.7% 4.8% 55kt / 48h 17.2% 10.1% 13.6% 70kt / 48h 6.4% 8.3% 7.4% 65kt / 72h 17.9% 17.4% 17.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.66 EP962026 260714 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 103.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 20.2 18.0 21.4 20.6 16.0 19.5 28.7 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 74.0 72.0 72.0 70.0 66.0 64.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -12.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%