Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP962026 260714 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    104.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  17.9  19.5  22.0  15.5  13.3  22.3  26.7  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  33.0  40.0  38.0  39.0  19.0  21.0  26.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3 122.9 114.4 104.8  88.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  63.0 101.0  81.0  56.0  92.0 147.0  61.0  N  N  F  N  N  F VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -8.0 -14.0 -15.0  -6.0  -6.0  -1.0  -3.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       23.0%       14.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%       10.2%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        9.5%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        8.8%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.2%       28.0%       17.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%       11.5%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       15.6%       17.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%       13.2%       10.2%
 65kt / 72h       14.6%       20.1%       17.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 EP962026 260714 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    104.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  17.9  19.5  22.0  15.5  13.3  22.3  26.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -8.0 -14.0 -15.0  -6.0  -6.0  -1.0  -3.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%