Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP962026 260714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  18.0  19.3  16.2  13.1  16.7  26.7  23.7  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  43.0  36.0  35.0  18.0  21.0  30.0  10.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 132.0 125.1 114.4 106.6 101.2  85.0  82.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  76.0  83.0  85.0  65.0 113.0 109.0 106.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -11.0 -20.0 -13.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       20.7%       13.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        9.1%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        8.2%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        7.5%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       25.7%       15.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%       10.9%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h       23.9%       11.0%       17.4%
 70kt / 48h       11.0%       10.4%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h       14.8%       13.7%       14.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.14

 EP962026 260714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  18.0  19.3  16.2  13.1  16.7  26.7  23.7  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -11.0 -20.0 -13.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%