Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP962026 260714 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  18.0  15.1  10.9  14.2  23.0  28.1  22.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  32.0  41.0  29.0  18.0  16.0  22.0  13.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 125.1 120.7 116.5 114.4 108.5  94.3  80.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  90.0  79.0  67.0  71.0 124.0  99.0  81.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -17.0 -12.0  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        3.1%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.4%       29.9%       19.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%       16.0%        9.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%       15.3%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       12.7%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%       40.6%       24.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%       22.0%       13.0%
 55kt / 48h       26.0%       12.1%       19.1%
 70kt / 48h       12.1%       16.6%       14.4%
 65kt / 72h       14.8%       18.2%       16.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP962026 260714 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  18.0  15.1  10.9  14.2  23.0  28.1  22.3  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -17.0 -12.0  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%