Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP972026 260717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    105.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.1  22.6  25.3  26.5  28.7  28.2  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  17.0  12.0   8.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  85.0  96.0  85.0 132.0  87.0  83.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  87.0  88.0  88.0  88.0  87.0  88.0  86.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       11.6%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.8%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       16.1%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        5.1%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        8.4%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        5.3%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%       17.7%       10.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 EP972026 260717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    105.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.1  22.6  25.3  26.5  28.7  28.2  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  87.0  88.0  88.0  88.0  87.0  88.0  86.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%