Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP972026 260717 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  24.4  25.2  26.7  27.2  26.9  29.9  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  11.0  12.0  17.0  17.0   9.0   9.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  63.0  54.0 112.0  94.0  95.0 116.0 127.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  88.0  89.0  88.0  87.0  86.0  89.0  86.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        9.5%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.0%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       13.7%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        4.2%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        6.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.1%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%       18.0%       10.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 EP972026 260717 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  24.4  25.2  26.7  27.2  26.9  29.9  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  88.0  89.0  88.0  87.0  86.0  89.0  86.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%