Rapid Intensification Guidance EP972026 260718 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.00 105.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.50 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 24.8 24.4 22.2 23.5 24.4 24.0 19.6 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 18.0 14.0 13.0 33.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 144.3 135.1 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 64.0 101.0 118.0 83.0 74.0 90.0 198.0 N N F F N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 90.0 89.0 89.0 88.0 86.0 89.0 88.0 86.0 VF VF VF VF F VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -1.0 -4.0 -3.0 -8.0 -10.0 N N N N F N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 1.6% 12.2% 6.9% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 4.0% 2.2% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 3.5% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 3.4% 1.7% 45kt / 36h 1.6% 18.7% 10.2% 55kt / 36h 0.5% 6.2% 3.3% 55kt / 48h 1.5% 9.9% 5.7% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 6.5% 3.4% 65kt / 72h 5.3% 27.0% 16.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 EP972026 260718 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.00 105.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 24.8 24.4 22.2 23.5 24.4 24.0 19.6 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 90.0 89.0 89.0 88.0 86.0 89.0 88.0 86.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -1.0 -4.0 -3.0 -8.0 -10.0 N N N N U N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%