Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP972026 260718 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  20.3  18.1  21.1  20.1  20.9  17.4  22.4  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   9.0  10.0  12.0  22.0  13.0  15.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 137.0 137.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  54.0  62.0  76.0  90.0  76.0 161.0 155.0  N  N  N  N  F  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   89.0  88.0  88.0  87.0  86.0  87.0  85.0  83.0 VF VF VF VF  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -9.0 -12.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       26.9%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%       12.6%        7.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%       12.6%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       11.6%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       39.4%       22.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%       20.1%       11.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%       22.6%       13.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%       18.0%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%       45.1%       26.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 EP972026 260718 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  20.3  18.1  21.1  20.1  20.9  17.4  22.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   89.0  88.0  88.0  87.0  86.0  87.0  85.0  83.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -9.0 -12.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%