Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     84.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  17.9  11.7  15.3  12.2  15.4  14.8  13.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  77.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0 109.0 106.0 103.0 114.0  95.0  70.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  74.0  73.0  64.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        5.0%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       26.8%       49.3%       38.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.7%       29.7%       21.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.3%       29.7%       19.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       29.1%       15.3%
 45kt / 36h       34.1%       62.8%       48.5%
 55kt / 36h       20.7%       41.1%       30.9%
 55kt / 48h       47.1%       51.7%       49.4%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       40.7%       32.9%
 65kt / 72h       53.7%       63.8%       58.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 IO012026 260922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     84.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  17.9  11.7  15.3  12.2  15.4  14.8  13.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  74.0  73.0  64.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%