Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     84.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  30.9  29.2  29.3  36.6  37.3  47.2  44.3  N  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  44.0  33.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  76.0  80.0  47.0  55.0  43.0  25.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  70.0  69.0  60.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        3.1%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       21.0%       16.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%        8.6%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.1%        8.6%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        8.6%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       15.2%       10.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        4.5%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        4.8%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        3.1%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 IO012026 260923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     84.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  30.9  29.2  29.3  36.6  37.3  47.2  44.3  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  70.0  69.0  60.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%