Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     84.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  19.2  16.8  16.4  19.5  21.0  28.6  37.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  15.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  75.0  81.0  91.0  82.0  78.0  69.0  52.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  78.0  74.0  71.0  67.0  61.0  49.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   6.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%       10.9%       10.6%
 25kt / 24h       36.6%       59.5%       48.1%
 30kt / 24h       23.0%       48.2%       35.6%
 35kt / 24h       23.0%       48.2%       35.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%       48.2%       26.3%
 45kt / 36h       31.5%       60.4%       46.0%
 55kt / 36h       17.2%       40.0%       28.6%
 55kt / 48h       24.7%       42.7%       33.7%
 70kt / 48h       10.5%       28.9%       19.7%
 65kt / 72h       14.1%       29.6%       21.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 IO012026 260923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     84.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  19.2  16.8  16.4  19.5  21.0  28.6  37.7  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  78.0  74.0  71.0  67.0  61.0  49.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   6.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%