Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     84.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  14.8  13.7  13.9  15.3  19.3  22.7  29.9  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  44.0  27.4  32.3  37.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  82.0  94.0  88.0  98.0  78.0  67.0  48.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  75.0  72.0  75.0  67.0  64.0  57.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%       10.3%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       39.2%       60.0%       49.6%
 30kt / 24h       22.0%       46.9%       34.5%
 35kt / 24h       19.5%       46.9%       33.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%       46.9%       25.4%
 45kt / 36h       37.5%       59.8%       48.7%
 55kt / 36h       22.1%       38.8%       30.4%
 55kt / 48h       39.1%       47.0%       43.1%
 70kt / 48h       21.1%       29.0%       25.1%
 65kt / 72h       26.3%       34.5%       30.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 IO012026 260923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     84.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  14.8  13.7  13.9  15.3  19.3  22.7  29.9  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  75.0  72.0  75.0  67.0  64.0  57.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%