Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  30.2  29.8  33.5  38.1  34.3  36.4  32.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  55.0  62.0  44.0  65.0  49.0  30.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  75.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  61.0  51.0  53.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -6.0   0.0   2.0  -7.0  -4.0  -7.0  -1.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       14.8%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        6.7%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        6.2%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.5%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%        8.8%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.3%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        4.2%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        4.1%        3.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 IO012026 260923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  30.2  29.8  33.5  38.1  34.3  36.4  32.3  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  75.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  61.0  51.0  53.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -6.0   0.0   2.0  -7.0  -4.0  -7.0  -1.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%