Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     83.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    177.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.6  25.7  29.9  29.4  23.3  27.4  25.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  48.0  47.0  30.0  40.0  22.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  77.0  72.0  72.0  63.0  60.0  50.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0   3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%       10.4%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        8.3%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        6.6%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        8.2%        5.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 IO012026 260924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     83.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    177.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.6  25.7  29.9  29.4  23.3  27.4  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  77.0  72.0  72.0  63.0  60.0  50.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0   3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%