Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     82.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    172.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  21.2  22.8  24.7  22.1  23.5  21.3  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  55.0  63.0  37.0  50.0  53.0  40.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  58.0  56.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        8.3%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.5%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        8.2%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        7.3%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%       10.1%        9.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 IO012026 260924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     82.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    172.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  21.2  22.8  24.7  22.1  23.5  21.3  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  58.0  56.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%