Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     82.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    168.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  10.9  10.6  12.7  21.4  24.5  27.5  29.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0 100.0  84.0  68.0  64.0  74.0  46.0  30.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  67.0  65.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   9.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       36.4%       23.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%       20.5%       11.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       18.5%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%       15.2%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       43.5%       27.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%       22.3%       13.9%
 55kt / 48h       38.7%       34.9%       36.8%
 70kt / 48h       21.0%       20.1%       20.6%
 65kt / 72h       48.8%       40.5%       44.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 IO012026 260924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     82.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    168.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  10.9  10.6  12.7  21.4  24.5  27.5  29.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  67.0  65.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   9.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%