Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    177.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  15.7  16.7  18.9  23.0  30.1  34.5  36.3  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  71.0  48.0  39.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  61.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%       24.8%       14.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%       11.9%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%       10.1%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%       34.4%       20.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%       15.6%        9.0%
 55kt / 48h       28.3%       22.2%       25.3%
 70kt / 48h       12.7%       13.0%       12.8%
 65kt / 72h       36.6%       27.7%       32.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 IO012026 260925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    177.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  15.7  16.7  18.9  23.0  30.1  34.5  36.3  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  61.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%