Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     82.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    184.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  13.1  17.6  21.2  29.5  35.8  34.5  34.4  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  64.0  61.0  64.0  72.0  40.0  43.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  55.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       34.6%       21.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%       18.1%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       16.3%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%       13.0%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       44.4%       26.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%       23.3%       13.7%
 55kt / 48h       30.6%       22.6%       26.6%
 70kt / 48h       14.0%       15.6%       14.8%
 65kt / 72h       36.6%       31.7%       34.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 IO012026 260925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     82.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    184.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  13.1  17.6  21.2  29.5  35.8  34.5  34.4  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  55.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%