Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    193.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  20.9  24.7  25.2  29.1  35.1  34.6  36.5  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  70.0  75.0  69.0  62.0  38.0  25.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        3.7%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h       11.6%       40.5%       26.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%       21.0%       12.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       20.0%       11.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%       14.2%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       58.4%       33.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%       37.0%       20.5%
 55kt / 48h       30.0%       26.5%       28.2%
 70kt / 48h       13.2%       25.3%       19.2%
 65kt / 72h       33.9%       42.4%       38.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 IO012026 260925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    193.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  20.9  24.7  25.2  29.1  35.1  34.6  36.5  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%