Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012026 260925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    176.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  25.7  25.0  32.0  36.8  35.1  33.3  32.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  76.0  71.0  57.0  44.0  33.0  49.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  48.0  46.0  42.0  45.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       25.4%       16.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%       10.4%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        9.4%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        6.8%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       33.4%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%       14.6%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h       21.0%       12.3%       16.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%       10.3%        8.9%
 65kt / 72h       35.6%       29.6%       32.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 IO012026 260925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    176.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  25.7  25.0  32.0  36.8  35.1  33.3  32.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  48.0  46.0  42.0  45.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%