Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012026 260926 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 81.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 51.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 165.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.1 26.7 27.5 32.6 42.5 40.1 38.9 39.3 N N N U VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 47.0 75.0 79.0 45.0 36.0 38.0 21.0 U N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 59.0 55.0 45.0 42.0 44.0 43.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -6.0 -9.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 N N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 3.8% 18.0% 10.9% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 6.7% 3.7% 35kt / 24h 0.7% 5.8% 3.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 45kt / 36h 1.2% 22.3% 11.7% 55kt / 36h 0.5% 8.0% 4.2% 55kt / 48h 12.5% 6.5% 9.5% 70kt / 48h 3.4% 5.2% 4.3% 65kt / 72h 21.2% 16.1% 18.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.10 IO012026 260926 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 81.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 165.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.1 26.7 27.5 32.6 42.5 40.1 38.9 39.3 N N N F VF F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 59.0 55.0 45.0 42.0 44.0 43.0 N N F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -6.0 -9.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 N N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%