Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012026 260926 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.90 81.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 163.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.0 27.5 32.8 39.1 41.1 47.8 47.0 52.1 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 52.0 75.0 80.0 67.0 38.0 39.0 26.0 29.0 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 57.0 53.0 51.0 47.0 45.0 42.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -5.0 -6.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 N F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 8.1% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 9.7% 5.1% 55kt / 36h 0.2% 2.5% 1.3% 55kt / 48h 7.1% 2.5% 4.8% 70kt / 48h 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 65kt / 72h 9.2% 5.1% 7.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.10 IO012026 260926 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.90 81.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 163.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.0 27.5 32.8 39.1 41.1 47.8 47.0 52.1 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 57.0 53.0 51.0 47.0 45.0 42.0 N N F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -5.0 -6.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 N U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%