Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012026 260926 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.00 82.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 179.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.2 35.5 38.3 39.0 42.0 38.9 43.7 47.2 U U U U VU U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 55.0 47.0 54.0 65.0 33.0 14.0 18.0 18.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 60.0 58.0 55.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 47.0 N N U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 5.2% 2.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.3% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 6.3% 3.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 3.3% 1.9% 2.6% 70kt / 48h 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 6.1% 5.0% 5.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.08 IO012026 260926 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.00 82.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 179.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.2 35.5 38.3 39.0 42.0 38.9 43.7 47.2 N F F F VF F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 60.0 58.0 55.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 47.0 N N F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%