Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022026 261026 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 89.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.5 11.8 26.3 37.2 56.7 71.8 81.3 96.2 F F N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 69.0 69.0 69.0 70.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 101.0 102.0 75.0 81.0 139.0 179.0 193.0 157.0 F F N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 65.0 62.0 65.0 62.0 57.0 55.0 56.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 2.0 18.0 44.0 51.0 38.0 34.0 N N N VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.3% 9.9% 7.6% 25kt / 24h 24.0% 44.9% 34.5% 30kt / 24h 11.8% 25.6% 18.7% 35kt / 24h 5.7% 25.6% 15.6% 40kt / 24h 2.1% 23.9% 13.0% 45kt / 36h 8.9% 25.0% 16.9% 55kt / 36h 3.2% 8.5% 5.9% 55kt / 48h 10.4% 4.2% 7.3% 70kt / 48h 2.1% 1.4% 1.8% 65kt / 72h 4.2% 0.4% 2.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.82 IO022026 261026 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 89.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.5 11.8 26.3 37.2 56.7 71.8 81.3 96.2 U U N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 65.0 62.0 65.0 62.0 57.0 55.0 56.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 2.0 18.0 44.0 51.0 38.0 34.0 N N N VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%