Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022026 261026 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 88.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 66.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.6 15.4 15.1 25.6 19.5 25.4 34.6 44.3 F F F N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 69.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 72.0 71.0 72.0 45.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 88.0 128.0 108.0 109.0 172.0 136.0 144.0 N F F F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 72.0 72.0 74.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 62.0 N N N N F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 -4.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 11.0 N N F N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 68.9% 54.9% 61.9% 25kt / 24h 82.1% 87.7% 84.9% 30kt / 24h 81.9% 87.7% 84.8% 35kt / 24h 78.3% 87.7% 83.0% 40kt / 24h 56.3% 87.7% 72.0% 45kt / 36h 72.1% 77.7% 74.9% 55kt / 36h 50.7% 63.9% 57.3% 55kt / 48h 48.5% 62.7% 55.6% 70kt / 48h 26.4% 42.6% 34.5% 65kt / 72h 40.6% 30.0% 35.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.88 IO022026 261026 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 88.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.6 15.4 15.1 25.6 19.5 25.4 34.6 44.3 U U U N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 72.0 72.0 74.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 62.0 N N N N U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 -4.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 11.0 N N U N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%