Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022026 261026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     87.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  21.1  22.4  26.8  26.7  28.4  34.7  53.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  70.0  71.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  49.0  33.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0 100.0  93.0 107.0 116.0 115.0 108.0  70.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   0.0  18.0  18.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       79.8%       55.2%       67.5%
 25kt / 24h       81.4%       82.4%       81.9%
 30kt / 24h       81.4%       82.4%       81.9%
 35kt / 24h       77.7%       82.4%       80.0%
 40kt / 24h       75.1%       82.4%       78.7%
 45kt / 36h       73.2%       57.6%       65.4%
 55kt / 36h       38.9%       36.8%       37.8%
 55kt / 48h       46.8%       34.5%       40.6%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       15.7%       20.5%
 65kt / 72h       15.5%        6.8%       11.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 IO022026 261026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     87.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  21.1  22.4  26.8  26.7  28.4  34.7  53.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   0.0  18.0  18.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%