Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022026 261026 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 85.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 74.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 23.0 26.7 26.5 27.4 32.8 42.4 55.0 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 70.0 72.0 74.0 76.0 75.0 53.0 41.9 43.7 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 100.0 93.0 107.0 102.0 130.0 128.0 102.0 65.0 F F F F F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 67.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 63.0 60.0 56.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 9.0 15.0 7.0 N N N N N U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 74.2% 51.8% 63.0% 25kt / 24h 79.3% 80.6% 79.9% 30kt / 24h 76.7% 80.6% 78.6% 35kt / 24h 72.0% 80.6% 76.3% 40kt / 24h 64.9% 80.5% 72.7% 45kt / 36h 70.2% 58.3% 64.3% 55kt / 36h 34.6% 36.9% 35.8% 55kt / 48h 43.4% 33.1% 38.3% 70kt / 48h 22.9% 13.8% 18.3% 65kt / 72h 10.6% 4.7% 7.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.84 IO022026 261026 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 85.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 23.0 26.7 26.5 27.4 32.8 42.4 55.0 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 67.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 63.0 60.0 56.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 9.0 15.0 7.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%