Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022026 261027 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 84.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 74.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 25.9 31.3 30.2 28.4 35.5 53.7 50.1 N N U N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 73.0 76.0 78.0 78.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 124.0 125.0 109.0 83.0 58.0 71.0 86.0 F F F F N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 61.0 61.0 60.0 59.0 55.0 46.0 N U N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 8.0 2.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.0% 19.2% 31.6% 25kt / 24h 52.8% 46.1% 49.4% 30kt / 24h 38.6% 40.3% 39.4% 35kt / 24h 34.4% 40.3% 37.3% 40kt / 24h 20.2% 35.0% 27.6% 45kt / 36h 51.2% 23.3% 37.2% 55kt / 36h 13.3% 8.7% 11.0% 55kt / 48h 26.1% 7.2% 16.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.52 IO022026 261027 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 84.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 25.9 31.3 30.2 28.4 35.5 53.7 50.1 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 61.0 61.0 60.0 59.0 55.0 46.0 N F N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 8.0 2.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.1% 1.0%