Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022026 261027 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 83.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 75.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.2 31.3 32.4 30.7 29.8 43.1 57.7 61.9 N U U U N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 76.0 78.0 49.0 51.0 50.0 37.4 38.2 39.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 124.0 125.0 109.0 154.0 65.0 74.0 80.0 103.0 F F F VF N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 61.0 62.0 59.0 57.0 50.0 37.0 U U N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 7.0 9.0 5.0 1.0 U N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 51.4% 10.5% 30.9% 25kt / 24h 30.4% 17.4% 23.9% 30kt / 24h 23.0% 10.8% 16.9% 35kt / 24h 17.0% 10.8% 13.9% 40kt / 24h 16.2% 8.1% 12.2% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 IO022026 261027 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 83.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.2 31.3 32.4 30.7 29.8 43.1 57.7 61.9 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 61.0 62.0 59.0 57.0 50.0 37.0 F F N N F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 7.0 9.0 5.0 1.0 F N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 8.8% 4.4%