Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042026 261101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     86.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  20.8  22.4  24.0  20.4  18.3  24.5  31.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  79.0  92.0  44.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  13.0  27.0  19.0  22.0  18.0   8.0  13.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  66.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  68.0  65.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%       15.0%       11.6%
 25kt / 24h       29.9%       58.5%       44.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.2%       44.4%       30.3%
 35kt / 24h        9.3%       44.4%       26.9%
 40kt / 24h        7.2%       39.5%       23.4%
 45kt / 36h       23.0%       69.5%       46.2%
 55kt / 36h       16.4%       53.5%       35.0%
 55kt / 48h       38.5%       46.1%       42.3%
 70kt / 48h       21.3%       40.7%       31.0%
 65kt / 72h       17.7%       43.1%       30.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.16

 IO042026 261101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     86.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  20.8  22.4  24.0  20.4  18.3  24.5  31.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  66.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  68.0  65.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%